A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
